BeerDome

I think you’re being vastly over pessimistic. Clinton can’t win the presidency, enough people hate her, that some Dems will just stay home if she wins the primaries and Reps may vote in higher numbers just to defeat her, no matter who the Rep candidate is.

Obama’s popular now, but what the hell has he accomplished? What company has he run, what state/city has he governed? He’s a one term Senator. Lack of experience will be hammered should he win the primary. Pretty speeches can only get you so far, inexperience nearly always shows up and reality hits hard.

So put Clinton at 0% of winning the presidency. I suppose you can leave Obama at 41% if you want since Clinton gave up her 17% its gotta go somewhere, and I’d certainly put him as the frontrunner, but only for now.

I’d about double Romney to 30%, Huckabee 10%, McCain gets 14, Guiliani get 4% and Thompson at 2. And since that’s 101% give Edwards/Paul -1% (I’d put that even lower but Edwards edges that number up since some people will vote for him since he’s “cute” - honest, some people have said they’d vote for him because he’s cute.

Comment by JOHN — January 10, 2008 @ 9:19 pm

I’ve heard Republican strategists that say Bloomberg would help Republicans, but the jury is still out on that.

John, I’m not that pessimistic. But just as people hate Hillary, there are a lot Republicans that won’t go to the polls because they are not “in love” with their candidate. Look at the primaries so far, huge numbers for Dems, not so much for the Republicans. Same is true for $$ too.

And there’s a rule in politics. ‘Never Understimate the Clintons.” She can win the presidency and I wrote this BEFORE the NH primary. Hillary is now 25% at least.

Comment by niekamp10 — January 14, 2008 @ 12:19 pm