Odds for President as of April 21st
The picture has changed since I last released my odds for president, let’s review and give our new odds just before Pennsylvania:
With the media embracing a new liberal, the Clintons’ immunity with the press has been lifted. Especially when it was clear she could lose, the onslaught increased. Turns out Hillary and Bill are pathological liars that will say and do (and have done) anything necessary to get political office. Who knew? That, and the problems she would have against McCain gives her a very low score.
Obama was the chosen one for about 3 months. The media coverage was overtly positive towards him. Then, if Obama is not president this time next year, it will be because of Ohio and Texas. I’m not saying he’ll lose the nomination, he almost assuredly has that, but the losses in TX/OH opened the door for months of Clinton criticisms. Obama, basically unknown to the public has a clean slate. This is the Democrat dream. As we all know, liberals are liked less and less, the more they tell or show people where they actually stand. Basically every solution they have is taxing more and giving that money to groups that ultimately use it as an incentive not to work.
McCain’s biggest hurdle is the Republican next to his name. He has a better chance of winning in this election than any of the other candidates, but he still has his comments that the economy is not his strong suit and that we could be in Iraq in 100 years. Both will be used against him. He also has consistently taken the high road and hasn’t personally attacked Obama/Clinton and even tells his subordinates not to do that either. There is a reason all politics turns ugly, because it wins elections. So I am not endorsing or condemning McCain for taking that stance, but it does hurt his odds. McCain’s next big media splash will be running mate. This is huge. If he picks a moderate, his conservative base will be angry. If he picks anyone with ties to Bush (ala Condi Rice), he’ll be open to the 4 more years of Bush attacks. So he probably needs a relatively unknown, but convicted conservative. But McCain could do about anything. This wildcard hurts his odds…
The Odds: McCain: 49% Obama: 45% Clinton: 4% Other: 2%
Filed by niekamp10 at April 21st, 2008 under Politics
Can’t say I disagree, probably about spot on. The Cult of Obama continues relatively strong, but the Clinton attacks have hurt him, along with his pastor, his statements about us hicks and our guns and religion. Gotta hope that McCain allows SOMEONE to get dirty and attack, we don’t want Obama looking messianic after Clinton finally falls.
Go Hillary, win PA and keep attacking.
Comment by JOHN — April 21, 2008 @ 7:40 pm